Baseball's superstitions may not be the only thing affecting performance, as illustrated by Aaron Nola's fluctuating success on the mound. The Philadelphia Phillies' pitcher has struggled in the early part of the 2025 season, posting a 6.43 ERA through five starts. This follows a pattern he's established over the years, alternating between strong seasons and disappointing ones. However, as Nola explains, the issue may stem from a lack of command rather than a simple superstition.

With a career walk rate of 6.4%, Nola's current 8.7% walk rate indicates he’s losing control of the game. His first-pitch strike rate has dropped significantly this season, leading to more aggressive hitters and fewer options when pitching. Despite struggling early, there are signs of hope; Nola’s sinker pitch is generating more groundballs, and improvements may come as he ramps up his velocity through the season.

The Philadelphia Phillies square off against the New York Mets in a pivotal matchup. Aaron Nola (0-4, 6.65 ERA) takes the mound for the Phillies, fresh off a loss to the Marlins, while Tylor Megill (2-2, 1.40 ERA) leads the Mets, who are on a four-game winning streak against the Cardinals. Nola has struggled this season, allowing at least two earned runs in each outing, and his previous encounters with the Mets indicate potential trouble.

With the Mets favored at -120, and a lean towards their team total going over 3.5, analysts highlight the importance of recent trends such as the Mets winning four of their last five home games against division rivals. For fantasy sports enthusiasts, the focus shifts to player performance and the potential impact on betting lines.

In Week 4 of the 2025 MLB season, several players have emerged as notable risers and fallers in fantasy baseball. Tyler Soderstrom of the Oakland Athletics has solidified his status with a scorching .309 batting average, 9 home runs, and 19 RBIs, demonstrating immense power with a career-low strikeout rate. Jung Hoo Lee of the San Francisco Giants has also made waves, boasting a .355 average with three home runs and good speed on the basepaths. On the pitching side, Chris Bassitt of the Toronto Blue Jays is excelling with a staggering 0.77 ERA, showcasing high strikeout potential, while Nick Pivetta from the San Diego Padres is displaying a promising 1.57 ERA. Conversely, not all stars are shining; Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros has struggled significantly with a .215 average, and Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies is fighting an uphill battle with a 6.65 ERA.

Wednesday's MLB slate offers a blend of potential and risk as teams gear up for an afternoon getaway schedule, with 10 matchups starting at 6:35 p.m. ET. Pitching options are less than stellar, but Aaron Nola stands out at $9,000 against the strikeout-prone Giants. Brandon Pfaadt and Robbie Ray provide intriguing alternatives, while value options like Clarke Schmidt and Osvaldo Bido may be worth considering.

Offensively, the Rockies' lineup presents a budget-friendly option against struggling pitcher Bobby Miller, while the Red Sox's Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers can be strong plays against Zack Littell. Stacking the Tampa Bay Rays against Sean Newcomb could yield returns, as could rolling with the Dodgers against German Márquez. This is an ideal opportunity for strategists to leverage mismatches and identify underpriced talent.

Today's MLB DFS slate offers a mix of top-tier pitchers and undervalued players to target. Brandon Pfaadt stands out against a struggling Miami lineup, boasting a solid strikeout rate that makes him a must-start in cash games and GPPs. Aaron Nola's matchup with the San Francisco Giants presents a high floor option for consistency, while Kris Bubic's breakout potential against the Yankees adds significant upside for tournament play. Value picks like Rafael Devers and Pavin Smith promise a strong offensive output, especially against pitchers with exploitable splits.

In the outfield, Brent Rooker and Corbin Carroll are poised for big games against favorable matchups. Stacking the Los Angeles Dodgers against German Marquez and the Arizona Diamondbacks against Max Meyer could yield high returns. Weather conditions seem favorable for both games, making it a perfect night for DFS enthusiasts. Stay updated on injury news and starting lineups to maximize your chances for success in today's contests.